ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL, cilt.34, ss.592-598, 2008 (SCI İndekslerine Giren Dergi)
In this work, an online air pollution forecasting system for Greater Istanbul Area is developed. The system predicts three air pollution indicator (SO2, PM10 and CO) levels for the next three days (+ 1, +2, and +3 days) using neural networks. AirPolTool, a user-friendly website (http://ailpol. fatih.edu.tr), publishes + 1, + 2, and + 3 days predictions of air pollutants updated twice a day. Experiments presented in this paper show that quite accurate predictions of air pollutant indicator levels are possible with a simple neural network. It is shown that further optimizations of the model can be achieved using different input parameters and different experimental setups. Firstly, + 1, + 2, and + 3 days' pollution levels are predicted independently using same training data, then +2 and +3 days are predicted cumulatively using previously days predicted values. Better prediction results are obtained in the cumulative method. Secondly, the size of training data base used in the model is optimized. The best modeling performance with minimum error rate is achieved using 3-15 past days in the training data set. Finally, the effect of the day of week as an input parameter is investigated. Better forecasts with higher accuracy are observed using the day of week as an input parameter. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.