Does the level of the yield curve predict inflation?


Kaya H.

APPLIED ECONOMICS LETTERS, cilt.21, ss.477-480, 2014 (SSCI İndekslerine Giren Dergi) identifier identifier

  • Cilt numarası: 21 Konu: 7
  • Basım Tarihi: 2014
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1080/13504851.2013.868582
  • Dergi Adı: APPLIED ECONOMICS LETTERS
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.477-480

Özet

This article addresses the issue of forecasting inflation using the term structure of interest rates. I use several measures for the level and the slope of the yield curve and investigate their predictive content for inflation. The results show that the forecasting performance of the indicators varies across countries. The findings suggest that the level of the yield curve is a better predictor for inflation than the slope of the yield curve.