FRESENIUS ENVIRONMENTAL BULLETIN, cilt.26, ss.29-37, 2017
Agriculture is one of the primary sectors that is expected to be affected globally by climate change. In this regard, prior knowledge on possible yield reactions of crop yield to changing environmental conditions is essential for decision makers. Hence, comprehensive studies on the estimation of adaptation abilities of globally grown crops are needed as indicators of related future risks and benefits. A guiding research is presented in this study as the first step by aforementioned means in northwestern Turkey (the Thrace Region). This region comes to the forefront particularly by its wheat, rice and sunflower productions, which are superior to Turkey's averages. Aim of the study is to present the adaptation ability of winter wheat grown to possible climate change by consideration of grain yield. To achieve this, two explanatory crop growth simulation models, CERES-Wheat and WOFOST, were applied in the Kirklareli city of the region. Desired databases were supplied with virtual past and real time inputs of dynamic crop, soil, and atmosphere system. Then, two-step model calibrations were applied for the representation of the past and current outputs considering major yield components of the winter wheat. This was followed then by the model validation process including variations in future climate inputs like solar radiation, temperature, precipitation and CO2. Lastly, related daily outputs of a regional climate model according to the AM climate change scenario were arranged for the coordinates of the selected parcels and the obtained data used as the meteorological inputs of CERES-Wheat and WOFOST for growing seasons within the 2013-2100 period.