Evaluating the effect of geopolitical risks on the growth rates of emerging countries

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Atıf İçin Kopyala

Soybilgen B., KAYA H. , Dedeoglu D.

ECONOMICS BULLETIN, cilt.39, ss.717-725, 2019 (ESCI İndekslerine Giren Dergi)

• Cilt numarası: 39 Konu: 1
• Basım Tarihi: 2019
• Dergi Adı: ECONOMICS BULLETIN
• Sayfa Sayıları: ss.717-725

Özet

In this study, we analyze the relationship between geopolitical risks and growth using annual panel data from 18 emerging countries for the period from 1986 to 2016. For a robustness check, we use panel data with 5-year intervals. The news-based indices of Caldara and Iacoviello (2018) were used as a proxy for geopolitical risks. Our results show that the effect of geopolitical risks on growth rates is negative and significant. A 10 point increase in the geopolitical risk index causes a 0.2-0.4% decline in the GDP growth rate.