Probability Forecasts of Macroaggregates in the Turkish Economy


Kaya H. , Yazgan M. E.

EMERGING MARKETS FINANCE AND TRADE, vol.50, no.2, pp.214-229, 2014 (Journal Indexed in SSCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 50 Issue: 2
  • Publication Date: 2014
  • Doi Number: 10.2753/ree1540-496x500213
  • Title of Journal : EMERGING MARKETS FINANCE AND TRADE
  • Page Numbers: pp.214-229

Abstract

We provide probability forecasts of key Turkish macroeconomic variables such as inflation and output growth. The probability forecasts are derived from a core vector error correction model of the Turkish economy and its several variants. We use model and window averaging to address uncertainties arising from estimated models and possible structural breaks. The performances of the different models and their combinations are evaluated using relevant forecast accuracy tests in different pseudo out-of-sample settings. The results indicate that successful directional forecasts can be obtained for output growth and inflation. Averaging over both the models and the estimation windows improves the level of accuracy of the forecasts.